Politics, Politics, Politics

One day Reagan, Gorbachev, and Yasser Arafat approach God with their concerns.

Ronald Reagan asked, “God, will the whole world ever see the light and become capitalist?” and God replied, “Yes, there will be a time when the entire world is capitalist, but not in YOUR lifetime.”

Gorbachev asked, “God, will there ever be a time when the world is communist?” and God replied, “Yes, of course there will be a time when the whole world is communist, but not in YOUR lifetime.”

Yasser Arafat asked, “God, will there ever be an independent Palestinian state with sovereignty?” and God replied, “Yes, there will be, but not in MY lifetime.”

A common Palestinian joke.

Prospects for Peace? Are you kidding?

Friends have asked me how the Palestinians are feeling about their prospects. I wish I had something positive to report, but I don’t. The happiest Palestinian I spoke with, during my April visit, was a born-again Christian who sees, in all tragedies, signs that the end days are coming and knows that the rapture is right around the corner. Palestinians feel no hope of a political resolution to the conflict: neither a one-state nor a two-state solution can be hoped for and no Palestinian unity government will be formed in the near future. Although they were very happy to see Barak Obama elected president of the United States, they don’t believe he will be able to do anything to change the “special relationship” between the United States and Israel. As usual, most Palestinians said that US pressure on Israel is critical to bring a political resolution to the conflict, but they have lost hope that the US will indeed pressure Israel.

Israel’s saber rattling and its efforts to get the US to strike out against Iran are spoken about quite often. I did not hear Palestinians express any particular solidarity with Iran, although a Pew poll taken in 2007 indicated that Palestinians were the number one supporter of a nuclear Iran. I’ve thought a lot about why this might be the case.  The Iranians are Persian and Shiites.  The Palestinians are Arab and 95% of them are Sunni.  In addition to these differences, Iraq's Saddam Hussein, who fought Iran from 1980-88 in the Iran-Iraq War,  was one of the few supporters of Palestinians and their rights, and Palestinians responded to this support with their admiration.   Complicate the situation more with the fact that Iran used to buy arms from Israel.  My guess is that, if Palestinians express little backing for Iran it is because, although they appreciate the verbal support they get from Iran and the backing Iran gives to Hezbollah and Hamas, the Palestinians are primarily secular Arab nationalists and feel little emotional tie to the Iranian people and their ruling religious mullahs.  I believe it has little, if anything, to do with the Sunni/Shiite split; Palestinians are big admirers of Hezbollah and its leader Nasrallah, although they are Shiah, because of their successful resistance against Israel. Many Palestinians seem to think that Iran is a real threat to Israel. (I, on the other hand, think that Israel has created an imaginary threat from Iran solely to distract attention from its own goal, which is to complete its settlement of Jerusalem and the West Bank.) One Palestinian that I spoke to thought that if Israel were to attack Iran, the region would be thrown into turmoil, Israel would be weakened and there would be an eventual realignment of power in the area that would not necessarily be bad for the Palestinians. I interpret this as his wishful thinking in the absence of any hope for a political resolution to the conflict.

Gaza Fighting

The recent fighting in Gaza had a profound effect on Palestinian feelings. They were shocked that the international community allowed the Israelis to continue pounding the civilian population. They were devastated that the Arab nations responded with mere lip service. They were furious that Egypt abetted the crime by keeping the Rafah border closed.

The fighting in Gaza had a similar impact on the feelings of Palestinians living in the surrounding region. In Jordan, a friend reported that a fundraiser collected enough money to fill a container with powdered milk and ship it into Israel for delivery to Gaza. At the Erez crossing, Israel refused to let the milk into Gaza. The milk was made by Nestle’s, and each cartoon was marked with the country of origin. Some had come from Syria, and the Israelis forced the organizers to unload all the cartoons of powdered milk to remove any containers from Syria, a country that Israel considers itself at war with. After that was accomplished and the non-Syrian cartoons reloaded, Israel continued to hold up the delivery for a significant time. In addition, a blood drive collected blood for delivery to Gaza, but Israel rejected the blood. Israel’s actions were no surprise, but the inaction of the Arab world was devastating to the Palestinians. My friend summed up, “The Arab world was uncaring, and Egypt was criminal.”

More than ever the Palestinians feel that they are going it alone. Random Palestinian taxi drivers and passengers in Jordan and the West Bank expressed rage that the world thinks of Palestinians as terrorists and Israelis as peacemakers. There is a huge discrepancy between the victimization that Palestinians experience and how they are portrayed.

Reaction to Israeli Elections

The recent elections in Israel that brought to power a right-wing coalition government headed by Likud’s Binyamin Netanyahu with Avigdor Lieberman (outspoken racist and proponent of “transfer” of the Palestinian citizens of Israel) as Foreign Minister did not surprise the Palestinians. For them, the new government of Israel represents what they believe is the true face of Israel. Their hope is that the open racism of this government will force the international community to respond.

There is relative Israeli indifference to and acceptance of racism and the concept of transfer. As I was leaving the West Bank on April 23, 2009 at the end of my trip, my taxi drove through the Jordan Valley along Route 90. At one point we passed a large sign announcing that we were on “Derekh Gandhi” or “Gandhi’s Road”. This road commemorates the life of Rehavam Zeevi, not to be confused with Mahatma Gandhi. (Zeevi was nicknamed after Gandhi merely because as a student he once shaved his head and resembled the great non-violent resister and leader of India). Israel’s “Gandhi”, founder of the right-wing Moledet party, popularized the notion of transferring the Palestinian citizens of Israel to Arab countries and proposed making the lives of the Palestinians so miserable that they would relocate. Zeevi was appointed the Israeli Minister of Tourism and on October 17, 2001 was assassinated by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) at Jerusalem’s Hyatt Hotel. In July 2005 a Knesset law was passed to commemorate him and educate future generations in his legacy.

Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority (PA)

Mahmoud Abbas’ Palestinian Authority (PA) and Fatah party are held in contempt by much of the population. Abbas is seen as a stooge who maintains the occupation for Israel. One could assume that he does it to keep his personal power, but reports have it that he does not really want to be the president and would be glad to go back to a private, or at least much less public life. In any case, the Palestinian and international press often refer to Abbas’ government as a “caretaker government” or as “US-backed government”. Both references are more accurate than in the US press where Abbas’ government is considered legitimate.

Hamas might be on the ascendency, despite the crackdown on them and the fact that most of their activity has been forced to go underground. The April 2009 Birzeit University election is an indicator that Hamas remains a serious force. Hamas came within two votes of Fatah, up from their previous five-seat disadvantage, despite Fatah’s reported bribes of money and cell phone cards to students in return for votes. It would be no great surprise if Hamas wins the next parliamentary elections, again, to the dismay of the US, Israel, and the EU. The only question is what collective punishment will be meted out this time for exercising democracy. It was easy for Israel to lock up Gaza and throw out the key. But, the West Bank is not as easy to hermetically seal – at least not yet.

In case you are wondering what sort of presence the Palestinian forces, all of whom report to Mahmoud Abbas’ PA, keep on the West Bank, here is my experience. In Arafat’s time there were 17 types of forces. With pressure from the US, some of those forces have been eliminated, and functions merged. I believe there are eleven different types of forces today. As an outsider, it is hard for me to know, when I see a uniformed officer, what force he is from. There is of course the Civil Police which I see doing traffic patrol in the cities, particularly Ramallah and Bethlehem. Among their other policing duties, they direct traffic and pull over cars to check for registrations. They are looking for cars that were stolen from Israel (with the help of Israeli thieves) in order to return them (in essence, they have become an extension of the Israeli police). There are Presidential Guards, National Security Forces, and Preventive Security Forces (plainclothes, counterintelligence). What the various other armed forces are specifically charged with is unclear to me. Two armed soldiers, most likely Presidential Guards or National Security Forces, pulled my driver and I over once to check our registration and the driver’s ID. They were stopping all yellow plated (Israeli plated) cars on the road and looking not for any stolen vehicle but for a specific vehicle and person. And then there are the secret services. When I was with a small group of tourists near the main square (Manara) in Ramallah, a plain-clothes soldier (from the Preventive Security Forces or its sister agency the Mukhabarat) started yelling at a young Hungarian man in our group for taking a picture. The Hungarian had taken a picture of the square and the plain-clothes soldier happened to be in it. Our guide was able to calm the soldier down and prevent him from taking the camera.

In any case, the PA goes about doing Israel’s bidding while the US trains the Palestinian security forces to keep Hamas, and any other faction that might pose a challenge, in check. Amos Harel of Ha’aretz states, “To date the Palestinian Authority security services have arrested dozens of Palestinians suspected of collaborating with the two radical Islamic groups [Hamas and Hezbollah].”

US money is being used to prop up and train these forces. The US pledged $900M for “Gaza recovery” at the March 2, 2009 donors’ conference. In fact, though, only $300M is going to Gaza humanitarian relief, none going to Gaza rebuilding, and the remaining $600M going to the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, purportedly to strengthen Abbas’ forces. Despite this, Voice of America puts the US spin on it:

At the March 2, 2009 donors conference for Gaza recovery in Sharm el Sheikh, the United States announced its intent to provide approximately $900 million in support for the Palestinian Authority and Gaza. The assistance, subject to Congressional approval, includes urgently needed humanitarian assistance, financial support to meet the Palestinian Authority's anticipated budget shortfall and measures to solidify economic and institutional reforms on the West Bank.

In 2008, the United States was the largest single donor to the Palestinian people. Support for the training of Palestinian Authority security forces is part of the U.S. commitment to the security, freedom, and well-being of the Palestinian people.

The US’s General Dayton has been in the West Bank going from city to city training Palestinian forces. Palestinians on the ground told me that these Palestinian forces could be seen in the city during the day and evening, but that they disappear around midnight at Israel’s request, allowing Israeli forces to come in and do raids at will. Reports say that Israelis use this cover of darkness to go after suspected members of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, but, as usual, much random destruction and collective punishment result.

Increased Settler/Palestinian Violence

Settler/Palestinian violence has been on the increase. Before my visit, during my visit, and since my visit, there have been several incidents, and there is a noted increase from the number of incidents last year. It seems somewhat predictable given the major increase in settlement activity and the fact that the current Israeli government is more sympathetic to the settlers than all of the past governments. These are just a few of the incidents:

- A Palestinian villager axing a settler, followed by joint Israel army/settler violence against the axer’s village.

- Palestinian teen shot by settlers

- Settlers destroying Palestinian land with bulldozers.

- Continued and increasing settler violence against Palestinians in Hebron’s H2 area.

- Settlers using agricultural tractors to block the Israeli government transfer of $50M through the Erez crossing to pay the salaries of PA employees in Gaza.

My Predictions

The US press is saying that Netanyahu expects Obama to put significant pressure on him when they meet in Washington DC on May 18^th. I wish I could say that I agree. My opinion is that Obama will ask for some changes in settlement policy, but that Netanyahu will once more be able to get away with making some cosmetic changes and spinning it for the Israeli and US press. I don’t believe that the American administration is serious about change in the status quo. I think it merely wants to fend off criticism and divert attention.

It is hard for me to believe that things will stay as quiet as they are in the West Bank for long. I could imagine a third intifada starting, this time with a different flavor – more directed towards the settlers within the West Bank. This would make sense based on the increasing theft of Palestinian land for the ever-growing settlements and the increasing level of settler violence, apparently sanctioned by the new Israeli administration, against the Palestinians.

However, my friends in the West Bank disagree with me that a third intifada is around the corner. Many Palestinians are enjoying the reprieve from fighting and are trying to experience some normal economic recovery (this despite a still-high unemployment rate.) My Palestinian friends think that the next fighting will be to oust Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah party and the Palestinian Authority (PA) from power.  Given the fact that the PA is keeping Palestinian resistance in check and is busily trying to disable Hamas in the West Bank, perhaps a third intifada is not a possibility prior to the ousting of the PA from power.

In any case, we all agree that other factors could negate all of our predictions, such as any aggression between Israel and Iran or unforeseen US pressure on the Israeli government.